With an estimated 430.537 inhabitants in 2025, the municipality of Maringá could reach 474.517 people in the next 25 years. With one detail: practically 100% of the population lives in the urban area.
This is what is revealed by the Urban and Rural Population Projection of Paraná Municipalities in the Period from 2025 to 2050, from the Paraná Institute for Economic and Social Development (Ipardes), released this week.
Today, 428.586 residents of Maringá live in urban areas and only 1.951 in rural areas, according to the report's database. In 2050, the estimate is that there will be 474.320 urban residents and only 197 rural residents.
In the 2022 Demographic Census, the percentage of the urban population of Maringá was 99,4%, making Cidade Canção the 5th largest city in the state. Currently, Ipardes' horizon is 99,5%. In 25 years, it will be 100%.
In the Metropolitan Region of Maringá (RMM), Sarandi has 99,5% of its population in urban areas and Paiçandu, 98,8%, according to the Census. In the Ipardes study, the municipality bordering Cidade Canção will increase from 99,6% to 99,9%. And the urban population of Paiçandu, from 98,8% to 99,1%.
This is the state's main trend. Based on the 2010 and 2022 Demographic Censuses, the Ipardes projection reveals that the Degree of Urbanization in Paraná is expected to grow from 89,7% in 2025 to 94% in 2050. Another relevant fact is the reduction in the state's rural population, which is expected to fall from the current 11,1% to 6% in 2050.
This is a process of reducing the population living in rural areas and increasing density in urban areas.
While urban centers are expected to gain 986.284 more people in the next two and a half decades – growing from 10.672.024 inhabitants in 2025 to 11.658.308 in 2050 – the population living in rural areas is expected to fall from 1.218.556 people in 2025 to 745.523 in 2050 – 473.033 fewer. Last year, Ipardes projected that the population of Paraná in 2050 should reach 12,4 million people.
According to the CEO of Ipardes, Jorge Callado, among the factors that drive urban growth, in addition to the vegetative balance (difference between births and deaths) and migration, are the impact of public policies and socioeconomic development.
“Population projections for municipalities by urban and rural areas, accompanied by constant monitoring of other variables of interest, assist government planning by providing insight into population distribution trends over time,” Callado emphasized. “They provide support for the provision of essential public infrastructure and urbanization services, in addition to the development of environmental protection policies.”
| MARINGA – 2025 | |
| Total population | 430.537 |
| urban | 428.586 |
| Rural | 1.951 |
| MARINGA – 2050 | |
| Total population | 474.517 |
| urban | 474.320 |
| Rural | 197 |
| Source: Ipardes | |
Tendency
The increase in the population living in urban areas follows a trend constantly observed in demographic censuses. According to the study, the Degree of Urbanization of Paraná increased from 58,6% in the 1980 Census, to 73,4% in 1991, 81,4% in 2000, 85,3% in 2010 and 89% in 2022.
The projection for the coming years predicts an urban contingent of 90,9% in 2030, 91,8% in 2035, 92,6% in 2040, 93,4% in 2045, and 94% in 2050. In addition, the study indicates that 147 municipalities will have the same or a higher proportion than the State in the urban population, that is, with 94% or more of people living in cities.
Currently, 100% of the population of Curitiba and Pinhais, in the Metropolitan Region (RMC), resides in areas classified as urban. By 2050, three more cities should be incorporated into this group: Maringá; Piraquara and Fazenda Rio Grande, also in the RMC.
The state is currently the fifth in Brazil with the largest urban population, behind Rio de Janeiro (97,9%), São Paulo (96,8%), the Federal District (96,5%) and Goiás (93,2%). At the other end of the table is Piauí, with 69,4%.
| MUNICIPALITIES – RMM | POPULATION/2025 | POPULATION/2050 | URBAN/2050 |
| Angle | 3.366 | 3.808 | 91,1% |
| Astorga | 26.142 | 23.989 | 94,8% |
| Watchtower | 4.036 | 3.600 | 81,6% |
| Good success | 6.649 | 5.789 | 96,2% |
| Cambira | 10.215 | 15.469 | 97,4% |
| Doctor Camargo | 6.534 | 6.885 | 94,8% |
| Florai | 4.787 | 3.744 | 99,1% |
| Amazon | 12.173 | 33.998 | 99,8% |
| Florida | 2.713 | 2.668 | 93,2% |
| Iguaraçu | 5.787 | 9.054 | 97,1% |
| Itambe | 6.206 | 5.604 | 95,8% |
| Ivatuba | 2.728 | 2.332 | 96,6% |
| Jandaia do Sul | 21.878 | 20.905 | 96,0% |
| Cub | 4.695 | 4.469 | 89,6% |
| Mandaguaçu | 35.948 | 81.219 | 99,7% |
| Mandaguari | 38.323 | 40.866 | 96,8% |
| Marialva | 45.337 | 64.798 | 95,3% |
| Maringa | 430.537 | 474.517 | 100,0% |
| Munhoz de Mello | 4.070 | 4.236 | 90,6% |
| New Hope | 26.998 | 22.600 | 95,8% |
| ourizona | 3.166 | 2.394 | 99,0% |
| Paicandu | 49.389 | 65.974 | 99,1% |
| President Castelo Branco | 4.294 | 3.139 | 98,6% |
| Santa Fe | 11.731 | 11.951 | 95,5% |
| São Jorge do Ivaí | 5.141 | 3.930 | 94,1% |
| Sarandi | 130.263 | 209.750 | 99,9% |
| Total | 903106 | 1127688 | |
| Source: Ipardes | |||
Exclusive
To project intra-municipal locations, IPARDES adopted the methodology of the United Nations Manual VIII and, in Brazil, the one applied by the João Pinheiro Foundation for the municipalities of the state of Minas Gerais. This methodology consists of prospecting population contingents, according to the differences in growth patterns by housing situation, classified according to their location area: urban or rural.
As a database, the total resident population was used, according to household situation, obtained in the 2010 and 2022 Demographic Censuses, carried out by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), and the total population from the Projections by Sex and Age of the Municipalities of Paraná (2025-2050), previously prepared by Ipardes.
